The Possible Impact of Setya Novanto Tragedy to the Coming Political and Security Situation of the Country

The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) in its effort to cover up completely the giant corruption scandal in the Government Project of Electronic Identification Card (e-IdC) decides alleging Setya Novanto as one of the eminent defendant of this organized corruption case. This giant organized corruption which has taken place in the period of the Reform Era to have been affecting the Government lost of 2,3 trillion rupiah.
 
Setyo Novanto is still free now but sooner or later he certainly would be detained in line with its legal process. Definitely it is a great challenge for the brave of KPK or otherwise KPK will lose its face. This e-IdC scandal has been definitely a serious tragedy of Setyo Novanto considering he is the Chairman of the strong and influent Golkar Political Party, he is also the Speaker of the House of Representative and speculatively he will be assigned as one of the possible partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election of 2019.

This e-IdC scandal took place when Setyo Novanto was the chairman of the Golkar Party Faction of the House of Representative in the period of 2009-2014.

For the long recent period Setya Novanto has been apparently considered as one of the Very Important Person of this country with a number of crucial records: He is one of the most senior  Golkar  Political Cadre born during the New Order Era as young Golkar cadre and to be successfully elected as the respected Chairman of the Golkar Party in the Reform Era, more than forty years later to save this strong political party from the broken dispute, affected by the confrontation between Aburizal Bakri and Agung Laksono respective group.

However Setyo Novanto is also considered as cunning Golkar Political Party Cadre, because he is considered as a Gokar Political Party Cadre who had been safe from a number of economic scandal happened in a number of Government Project in along with his political career. Setyo Novanto was also considered as cunning but lucky Golkar Party cadre who has been accommodated by President Jokowi who was very angry because his name was manipulated by Setya Novanto to look for the Papuan Tembaga Pura's share holder. He is considered as successful Business Merchant and also a lucky politician.

However various Observers who likely have the accurate observation in the case of e-IdC Corruption scandal are of the opinion Setyo Novanto to be considered impossible to be safe from this criminal accusation. The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) has been believed accurately and pertinently working, anyone who is accused as defendant by KPK to have been definitely the accusation is based on strong advance evidences and accordingly finally the respective defendant will be  jailed.

Also in the case of Setya Novanto, Vice President Jusuf Kalla (JK) is looked likely considering Setyo Novanto has to be responsible for all he has done and asking the Golkar Party to urgently reform its leadership composition. Likely Vice President JK  tend to believe Setya Novanto to have  been definitely involved in this giant scandal. It is only Fahry Hamzah, vice Speaker of The House of Representative who said going to protect Setya Novanto from further legal process.

However it is predicted the legal effort to save Setyo Novanto is potentially failure. Fahry Hamzah is being understood as the most active member in The House of Representative agenda of the Enquet (Angkert) on KPK, his strong attitude to save and to protect Setya Novanto will definitely strengthening the political image that the Enquete (Angket) of KPK to be just the political effort to save the involvement of a number of the members of the House of Representative including Setya Novanto in the Corruption scandal being covered up by KPK.

The Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) said the decision to accuse Setyo Novanto as the defendant to have no any relation with the House of Representative's Enquete on the Corrtuption Eradidication Comission (KPK). The accusation of Setyo Novanto as one of the eminent actor of e-ICd project is not the counter attack of KPK against the agenda of The House of Representative on the Enquete on KPK. The legal process done by the Court on the e-IdC corruption definitely to have proved the eminent involvement of Setya Novanto in this giant scandal.

Prediction to the end of Setya Novanto graft case

The giant corruption case involving Setyo Novanto is really a tragedy realizing the general impact of this giant scandal, as various observers to be predicting:
The case of Setyo Novanto is  considered damaging the credible image of the Indonesian national leadership especially the Legislative Body prestigious performance.
 
The emergence of the demand urging the House of Representative to replace Setyo Novanto as the Speaker of the House of Representative is indicating Setya Novanto is no more considered as the qualified leader to lead the House of Representative. However Setya Novanto apparently rejects the people's demand him to resign from his position as the Speaker of The House of  Representative.

Analyst tend to seriously look at the possible impact of the Setyo Novanto tragedy to the debacle of the political situation in the Regional Election in 2018, of the General and the Presidential Election in 2019.

Those political debacle will be apparently starting from the internal dispute emerging among the Golkar Party members on whether or not a Special National Congress to elect the New Chairman of Golkar Party should be conducted. According  to the Golkar Party Constitution Chairman of Golkar Party should be elected by the National Party Congress.

In this case, Setya Novanto tend also reject to resign but transferring the political party leadership to the Daily Party Leadership Council.

This crucial situation will likely affect the problem of election of the new Speaker of the House of Representative (after Setya Novanto to be detained) and finally the political balance in the Presidential Election caused by the estimated set back of the Golkar Party  achievement in the General Election of 2019.

Golkar Party is definitely one strong  political party expected to support President Jokowi in the Presidential Election in 2019 together with  PDI-P, NASDEM and Hanura, while PAN, PKB and PPP are considered in uncertain position. The result of Golkar Party achievement in the Election of 2019 to be estimated low affecting the achievement number of Presidential Threshold by the Government Coalition, it is estimated bellow 20 %.

All of those crucial problem resulted by the Setyo Novanto tragedy when finally Setya Novanto to be detained could be likely  anticipated as bellow:
Internally Golkar Party will potentially face the breaking dispute, the emergence of the demand for the Special National Golkar Party Congress to elect the new Chairman replacing Setyo  Novanto against the defense idea to let the Chairman post being  vacant and the daily leadership to be run by the Council of the Daily Leadership. The main  problem will be apparently Golkar Party members realize there is not now any Golkar Political Cadre  to be considered as tough and credible enough to be elected as the Chairman of the Golkar Party. The rivalry among the existing Golkar senior cadres is to eminent.
 
In the mean time since Setyo Novanto is also the Speaker of The House of Representative, it is un-avoided his position as the Speaker of The House of Representative should be replaced by someone. The post of the Speaker of The House of Reresentative could not be let vacant the new Speaker of The House of  Representative should be appointed by someone of the Golkar Party.
However since apparently Golkar Party is not able to elect the  new Chairman of the Golkar Party, definitely the problem of the Speaker of The House of Representative will likely a crucial for The House of Representative.

To solve the problem it could likely Golkar Party appoint someone of its member of the House of Representative to replace Setya Novanto. The difficulty will apparently re-emerge, not any member of the House of Representative of the Golkar Party to be credible enough to be appointed as the Speaker of The House of  Representative.

Apparently the demand to replace Setya Novanto as the Speaker of  The House of Representative definitely could not be stopped and certainly this situation will disturb the legislative agenda of the House of Representative.

However It could be unavoidable if people apparently to be  remembering to the history of the past, since the House of Representative is a part of the People's Consultative Assembly  definitely it could be also likely the job of The Speaker of The House of Representative could be also chaired by The Speaker of The People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) as it happened during the New Order period. This kind of assumption could be likely caused  by the dynamic political performance of Zulkifly Hasan as the Speaker of the People's Consultative Assembly.

The most crucial situation

Finally the most crucial situation will be likely Setyo Novanto tragedy could  influence the situation of the Presidential Election of 2019.

The leaving of Setya Novanto as the Chairman of Golkar Party definitely will make the Government Coalition to be less optimistic to reach the Presidential Threshold of 20 % as they want. The Government Coalition is mainly depending to PDI, Golkar, NASDEM, and Hanura while PAN, PKB and PPP are in uncertain position. With the debacle of Golkar Party because of Setyo Novanto tragedy it is likely Golkar Party become considerably weak and definitely will affect the political solidity of the Government Coalition.

Meanwhile the partner of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election will become more uncertain. Before it was speculated  Setyo Novanto to be one of the strong candidates for Vice President, but after the leaving of Setyo Novanto it will be unclear who will be the most strong candidate for the Vice Presiden in the Presidential Election of 2019.

It is likely Setyo Novanto tragedy could affect badly to the performance of the Golkar Party and the political convenience of the country situation until the Presidential Election in 2019.
         
Accordingly it is also doubt the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) to be politically strong enough to finalize the case of Setyo Novanto legally, realizing the possible political move launched by a certain strong political interest group which will forcefully make the case of Setyo Novanto legally stopped. It could be likely predicted what will happen in such situation, however to think for the worst is definitely suggested.
 
TNI, The Police and the Security Unit in general are definitely out of the Political Scene, however from the security point of view it is likely important for them to watch the development of the national political situation after Setya Novanto to be  detained.

*) Political and Security Observer.