Prediction and Foresight Scenario in 2017

Predicting the global and regional situation as well as the national that will happen in 2017 is not easy, because it will be surrounded by a lot of fundamental and strategic developments, including "strategic surprises" and "driving force" in it.

At least, there are some sensitive issues that will affect the situation globally and regionally, among others, the continuing crisis in Syria and Iraq, due to the efforts of Iraq, Shiite militants, Kurdish militants (Peshmerga) and US coalition forces to defeat ISIS in Mosul, Raqqa and Allepo are not an easy work; The dynamic situation of the South China Sea dispute (LTS), which will continue with Chin's plan that combines Fabianstrategy with the theory of balance of power in the region in order to prevent (Deterence) as well as to maintain the hegemony of influence; The dynamic situation of global politics as a result of the victory of Donald Trump; The threat of terrorism is still going to be a security problem in some countries; Increased military spending in several countries could be a trigger of a global conflict as the nuclear arms race continues.

Meanwhile, national issues that predicted will occurred in the 2017 such as terrorism threats, interference separatism in Papua, 2017 Electoral Implementation, drugs and the threat of corruption and the possibility of social cohesion as a result of multitude number of foreign worker.

Although the Syria government which supported by Russia "managed" the recaptures of Allepowhich dominated in the last 4 years by radical insurgent groups and ISIS, but the crisis in Syria and Iraq are expected to continue in 2017 as more "lone wolves" which will do more amaliyahactions in Syria until Baashar al As'ad fell from his power. It needs toanticipate the possibility of "ex-fighters of ISIS radical groups" who return to their respective countries after the fighting in Syria, including those from Indonesia.

"Former members of ISIS" who is a citizen of Indonesia is not insignificant and they are just like Baharum Naim who has been took allegiance oath to Abu Bakar al Baghdadi, so the possibility of "final concert in 2016" from a group of Baharum Naim cells in Indonesia is still likely to occur, although currently intelligence officials through the Police Headquarters of Detachment 88 continues arresting terror cells that are still alive and it is expected to be more and more in Indonesia.

Terror Threats

Global Terrorism Index (2016) has the list of the countries which always become the terror threats victim. Most of them are in Arab, South Asia and Africa. Recording to terrorism expert and the chief of International Center for Terrorism Research and Political Violence (ICPVTR) in S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore, Dr Rohan Gunaratna, and ISIS ideology has been spread and has been Southeast Asia. The same opinion also stated by Regional Director of International Association for Counterterrorism and Security Professionals Center for Security Studies Southeast Asia, Andrin Raj, that ISIS threats in several countries in ASEAN and Asia will still be continue. Terrorist group predicted will stay exist in 2017 and they will be "spectre" which threat global safety situation, regional, and even in Indonesia.
 
Several "notorious terror groups" that will spread threats in 2017 such as ISIS, which as income around US$ 2 billion per year or more than Rp 24 trillion per year, most of the money come from bank robbery and weapon stealing. Until now, it is becoming the threat remembering that ISIS is one of terrorist group which know technology; Al-Qaeda predicted has income more than US$ 100 million or more than Rp 1,9 trillion per year; Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) is the branch of Al-Qaeda in Southeast Asia and responsible for the Bali bombings in 2002 which caused 202 victims. Centering in Indonesia and formed in early 1990s with purposed to build "khilafah" in the area.

Many of the main actors, including spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir, the maker of Bali bombings Umar Patek and leaders in Singapore Mas SelamatKastari who has been caught. This cells break down since 2002, but some members who joined in JAD are still strong in Banten, West Java and East Java.

Based on Police Station repot, in 2016, there is an increasing of terrorism cases up to 170 cases compared in 2015 that had 82 cases, although the terrorism threats had been overcome so well, such as Sarinah Bomb, decreasing the number of Santoso group up to 10 members, until the revealing of terrorism threats in Christmas and New Year events.

Exclusive and radical groups, which mostly are the group that has relation to ISIS, dominated the terrorism attack in Indonesia. the Thamrin-Jakarta ebent, Solo, Medan, Tanggerang and Samarindaalong with preventive actions by Detachment 88 in Majalengka, South Tanggerang, Batam, Ngawi, Solo, Payakumbuh, Deli Serdang and other cities showed that terrorism issues in 2016 are still strong and the terrorism threats will still continue in 2017.

Recording to intelligence observer of University of Indonesia, Stanislaus Riyanta, models of terrorist acts in Indonesia will continue to change and adapt in order to deceive detection security forces. This model has been put into use at the end of 2016 by using women as 'brides' in planning suicide bombings. This certainly does not rule out the possibility to grow by using teenagers or children as a 'tool' to carry out suicide bombings such as those in conflict areas in other countries. Control of terrorist acts will be done remotely from a distance even from other countries with the help of technologies such as the Internet.

Separatism Disturbance in Papua

The existence of Papua Separatist Movement (GSP or OPM) in Papua is supported by a number of organizations who "sympathized or aspirated with them" like the United Liberation Movement of West Papua (ULMWP), West Papua National Committee (KNPB) and others have made the issue of Papua continue to discussed and being attention both central and local government.

In military strength, obviously GSP/OPM is not the proportionalopposite to the military or police, including the wings of the political GSP/OPM at Indonesia and abroad actually very few in number, but militancy is very strong but they also have the disadvantage of each group still has the pragmatism politics and selfishness struggle.
 
ULMWP for example, continues to strive to become a full member of the Melanesian Spearhead Group (MSG), but it seems member states MSG mind if ULMWP be a part or member of their fixed, because the small countries in the Pacific Islands on average still considering the destruction of their diplomatic relations with Indonesia if ULMWP become members of the MSG. However, for Vanuatu, PNG, Solomon Islands, etc clearly more pleased to be associated with Indonesia than with ULMWP.

Maneuver of Benny Wenda and other political exiles from Papua in several European countries also do not have any influence, if any politician from Europe who support the movement of Benny Wenda, it is a politician from a small political party and is not dominant. European countries still provide answers unequivocally that Papua is illegal Indonesian territory and they do not support the internationalization or the independence of Papua. In 2017, the GSP/OPM movement and Benny Wenda are expected to remain there, but the results clearly "still going nowhere".

The Outright Election 2017

Recognized or not recognized, Indonesia is a country that is super and should be an example to other countries. It is proven that the Election as a manifestation of the people's political independence successfully implemented safely in Indonesia since the fall of the New Order until Election 2014. Not only that, Indonesia also managed to carry out elections in 2015 Unison peacefully, democratically and fairly safe, so it is not surprising that optimism for the success of elections in 2017 which will take place in the 101 area (7 provinces, 76 counties and 18 cities) will also be a secure, peaceful, democratic and integrity, although a pile of problems (the batch of problems) still haunts the pre-election unison 2017 on 15th February 2017.

There are a number of problems related to the elections in 2017 including a non-neutrality of ASN/PNS in some areas, lack of professional management elections institutions in some areas, problems of DPT as a result of the incompletee-KTP, disputed elections, the budget problems, the number of violations in the stages of the campaign, the logistical, to potential security issues, especially in Aceh, Papua, West Papua, Maluku, North Maluku and Southeast Sulawesi. Therefore, it is necessary there are additional security forces in the areas of "hot spot" and "trouble spot" in 2017's elections.

From a number of these issues, there are few that can actually be solved by local governments together with stakeholders in the area, but there are some issues that need to be addressed or require an order from the President as Head of State.

Implementation of the elections in 2017 in Jakarta also fall into the category of be important after the charged with blasphemy by Ahok, especially the rumors related to the plan of mass action on 11th  and February 12th, 2017 of the Anti-Ahok, including dawn together on February 15th, 2017 followed by equally go to TPS. Not only that, the dynamic journey of Ahok during the 2017 trial until a verdict is issued will create a national situation "chills".
The journey of elections in 2017 are also increasingly need to be considered because of the advent of the phenomenon of the abuse of social media redistributed during the pre-election in 2017 in some areas.

This phenomenon can actually be overcome if communication and information stakeholders in Indonesia actively and simultaneously conduct literacy social media wisely and mature to the public, including conducting "cyber patrol" and "social media law enforcement" to the accounts "mischievous" and not nationalist.

Corruption and Drugs Threats

The monitoringresults that conducted by Indonesia Corruption Watch (ICW), shows that as many as 755 corruption cases handled by law enforcement agencies, have not progressed in the first half of 2016. Handling of cases that do not run, most occur in the prosecutor's office. "Though there are 911 cases of corruption with the status of the investigation in the second half of 2015, but only 156 cases that rise to the prosecution," said ICW Investigation Division staff Wana Alam in a press conference at the Secretariat of ICW, Jakarta, Sunday (August, 28th, 2016).
 Based on data obtained ICW, in the second half of 2015, the prosecutor handling 639 cases of corruption to the status of the investigation. Later, the police handle 246 cases at the level of investigation.

Meanwhile, the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) handles 26 cases at the level of investigation in the second half of last year. However, from January to June 2016, cases that rise to the prosecution stage only a small amount. Prosecutor's just finished the 112, while the police only bestow 35 cases to the prosecution stage.

Meanwhile, the Commission delegated only 9 cases to the prosecution stage. Clear until the end of 2016, increased the number of corruption as evidenced by the increasing number of criminals were exposed to capture hand operation. Given the corruption is an extraordinary crimes, it is the discourse of the death penalty or at least a cultural impoverishment and social penalties for corruption needs to be echoed in the year 2017.

Meanwhile, the number of drug users in Indonesia until November 2015 reached 5.9 million people, and in 2016 the number of drug users is certainly more and more, especially new types of drugs have also been detected by BNN in cooperation with the intelligence community.

Indonesia has been in the emergency hazard Drugs level and it was submitted by the President. Moreover, in ASEAN, Indonesia is the largest market share for drug sales, while the country is the largest importer of China and Thailand. Drug use, mostly due to a lack of understanding on narcotics and concern from the public and the law is still binding to the fullest. Last but not least, every day there are 30 to 40 people who died because of drugs.

In scenarioand foresight theory, there are at least two categories to be faced by Indonesia, "Specter situation" or "Sparkling situation". "Spectre situation" occurs when all of the problems addressed and dealt fail, causing a commotion even security prolonged instability. "Spectre situation" also resulted in a terrorist on the loose and fail to detect; Papua internationalization even Papua independence become true, because early detection of a failure or a comprehensive solution in Papua;
The elections in 2017 failed to produce a quality regional leader will cause "social disobeydience" widespread in the community; criminals still grinning and drug dealers still roam. While the sparkling situation is the opposite of the Spectre situation.

Sparkling situation occurs if the fight against terrorism, corruption and drugs continued strengthened by the revised anti-terror law that accelerated completion, budget support operations for law enforcement agencies and the Commission as well as the BNN to combat corruption and drugs, while for Papua handling what happened under Jokowi-JK has been good to build infrastructure including Papua-PNG border area; construction of houses for the underprivileged in Papua or revitalization of traditional markets, even giving amnesty to political prisoners in Papua.

The author eventually continues to believe that the situation in 2017 will still be fine and step by step we are heading towards the sparkling situation, because of the attitude and policies of the government towards its people has been clearly and unequivocally that "you never walk alone" means that the country will be present to resolve problems there is. Hopefully.

*) The author is a Researcher at the Center of Risk and Strategic Intelligence Assessment (CERSIA), South Jakarta.