Political Prediction of 2016

To predict what  will happen in the political life of Indonesia in 2016, it is likely important for us to resume the political situation in 2015 covering the development of political party, the Working Cabinet's performance, and the people's expectation especially on the economic field.

Based on the above framework of thinking, a number of significant political issues can likely be adopted as the point of our discussion: Political party grouping in the 2014 Presidential Election and its impact; The composition of the Jokowi-JK Cabinet and its performance; Critical issues after the Working Cabinet of the Joko "Jokowi" Widodo-Jusuf Kalla duo has worked for a year; Critical issues entering the year of 2016 and its possible development.

The assumptions applied in the assessment below are among others there is no unexpected worsening development in the political relations among the great powers (the USA, Western Europe,  Russia, China and Japan) and there is neither any dramatic international security issue influencing the situation in Indonesia.
 
Prediction

Firstly, the political parties backing the pairs of Jokowi-JK and Prabowo-Hatta during the Presidential Election in 2014 have created respectively  a group of political coalition in the House of Representatives. The Red and White Coalition Party (KMP), whose members are Gerindra Party, Golkar Party, PKS, PPP and PAN, supported Prabowo in the Presidential Election.

However, the Golkar Party and PPP indicate its low support to this political coalition.  In the meantime, PAN officially pulled out from the Coalition.  Only two political parties of this political coalition, which are really critical against the President Joko Widodo Government. They are Gerindra Party and PKS.

The second Political Party Coalition created during te Presidential Election was The Mighty Indonesia Coalition (KIH). It is supported by the PDI-P, PKB, NASDEM Party and HANURA Party. This political party coalition has been supporting the Jokowi-JK duo since the time of Presidential Election until today. Enjoying its status as the ruling group with a number of ministerial seats respectively in the Cabinet, the KIH looks stable and compact.

Since there have been no government coalition and opposition party coalitions in the House of Representative, the critical attitude against the Jokowi-JK government is more acted by individual politicians, such as Fadly Zon from Gerindra Party, and Bambang Sulistomo from Golkar Party.

It is predicted that the two groupings will at last be just a historical party record in Indonesian politics and the two names will still be there but without any political meaning. Practically, the political position of the Jokowi-JK Cabinet has been strong in the House of Representatives though individual critique toward the government was also heard but meaningless.

Secondly, the Working Cabinet of President Jokowi and Vice President Jusuf Kalla was composed as a combination of political party figures representing those from the Mighty Indonesia Coalition (KIH) and a number of professional figures coming from various groups, who were elected as ministers by not representing anybody or any party. Among them are Coordinating Minister for Maritime  Mr Rizal Ramli and Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs Darmin Nasution.

There is no clear information about the way of the meeting and the technical situation during Cabinet Meeting, which is held monthly, but President Jokowi has warned his Ministers recently of making decisions and works in line with the decisions made during the Cabinet Meeting.

President Jokowi also warns that the discipline of among the Ministers to coordinate one another should be fully done. Looking also on the field, the coordination and the synchronization among various Ministries is indicating weak and need serious step to be re-ajusted.

Unofficial demand has emerged urging President Jokowi to reshuffle his Cabinet at the latest in 2016. This demand has been mainly based on the argument that a number of the Economic Ministers are not capable for their respective jobs. However, specific names of the Ministers have never been mentioned.The withdrawal of PAN from the Red and White Party Coalition (KMP) has been strongly speculated that one Politician of PAN will be appointed as Minister if the cabinet is reshuffled.

So far President Jokowi has never responded to those criticizing his Cabinet. Instead, President Jokowi always demonstrates his spirit and willingness to work for  finishing the whole economic projects he has decided. However, people tend to get concerned about the capability and credibility of the Cabinet in doing the government's programs.

Thirdly, one year has passed for the Working Cabinet. Thus, it is reasonably to be evaluated as the management of the national development of this country. A number of Research Organizations have attempted to ask the people about their opinion concerning the performance of the Cabinet.  Though people tend not to be satisfied with the cabinet's performance, more than 50 percent of the respondents still believe and expect the Jokowi-JK duo will succeed in leading the country in the coming years.

Looking at the popular issues, the economic situation dominates the people's attention, such as the high prices of people's daily needs and the difficulty of young people in getting jobs.

People tend not to be interested in foreign affairs, issues related to the implementation of the ASEAN Free Market, and also the development of the Armed Forces. Cynically, they only said that the living condition during the era of President Suharto was much better than to day. Clearly, the economy has dominated the people's hearts and minds. They completely forget that President SBY was in power for ten years, while the Jokowi-JK duo has just led the country for one year.

People tend to forget the fact that the economic situation of today is practically a part of the unfinished tasks of President SBY's Cabinet.  Some assessed that today's difficult economic situation has been also caused among other by the corruption that happened in almost all development sectors of National Programs.

The achievement of economic development and crushing the corruption will likely become an important political issue in evaluating the performance and capability of President Jokowi from now to the end of his term.

Fourthly, the people's expectation to the cabinet is demanding steps taken by the president and vice president so that a better management of the government can be made to improve the country's economy. Temporarily, people tend to neglect the challenges in the field of foreign affairs or international situation. In the meantime, the issue of foreign workers, described as experts and supervisors, legally arriving in Indonesia, has been considered as the government's weakness.

On the eyes of intellectual community and observers, the exploitation of the national natural resources, such as  mining, by foreign contractors has disturbed the people who care for the condition of the existing national resources and environmental damages, caused and left by the mining contractors.

The lessen role of political parties in absorbing and transforming the people's demand to the national authorities such as the House of Representatives is considered a failure. People living in remote areas keep undergoing difficult and uncertain situation. For those living in rural areas, the unresolved land conflicts are perceived as one of the crucial problems.

Sporadically, there have been ideas and demands for using the State Policy Guidelines (GBHN) as in the past for the present development process but as if any governmental institutions look reluctant to respond to these.

Conclusion

The political structure applied in the year of 2015 will still likely  be continued in the year of 2016. The composition of the political parties will likely not be changed. The political grouping created during Presidential election in 2014 will still exist but without having real political role.

The political polarization, demonstrated  by the creation of the KMP and KIH camps will be likely only a historical record of the Indonesian  Political Party.

The political situation will be likely more influenced by charismatic politicians rather than ideology or political party doctrines. Unfortunately, the unavailability of any political figure has indicated his high quality of leadership and capability. This situation insists us to predict that a certain significant development will not be materialized in 2016.

The political situation in 2016 will be mainly influenced by the performance of the Cabinet especially in the field of economic development program. However, the political position of the Jokowi-JK duo is strong, and there is no political party opposition in parliament.

The  political stability will not be likely disturbed. The rivalry between The Red and White Political Party Coalition (KMP)  against The Minghty Indonesia Political Party Coalition (KIH) still exists but it is no more significant, and not any political issue will likely emerge.

The workers' demand for wage hike, the development program on infrastructures and the development program of the less-developed villages could emerge as another crucial social and political problem for the government.

The people will always evaluate President Jokowi and Vice President Jusuf Kalla's capability based on the popular necesities such as the prices of staple food and easiness in getting job. Although the output of the Cabinet's effort to improve the economic condition is still below expectation but the political image of the President Jokowi administration remains high and respected mainly because of the president's attractive personality.

Most probably, the political image of President Jokowi will be tested again after the middle of the year of 2016 when the annual budget planning of the year 2016 is to be effectively implemented. The Cabinet's capability  to absorb the approved budget will be tested and used as a means for evaluating the progress of the development program.

*) The writer is a former Chief of State Intelligent Coordination Board (BAKIN).