Political Elite Manuevering, Does It Enough To Beat Jokowi in 2019?

Gerindra Party chairman and former presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto arrived at the private residence of former president and Democratic Party chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono in Cikeas, West Java, at 8.30 p.m. on Thursday. The patrons of the two largest opposition parties were scheduled to have closed-door talks about the newly passed election bill, during the deliberation of which both parties opposed the government's decision to retain the 25 percent presidential threshold. Many believe the meeting was also aimed at pondering a possible alliance between the two parties ahead of the 2019 presidential election.

After losing last week's legislative battle over the presidential threshold, the Democratic Party and the Gerindra Party are pondering an alliance for the 2019 presidential election. Democratic Party spokeswoman Imelda Sari said in Jakarta on Thursday that party chairman Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono would meet with his Gerindra Party counterpart Prabowo Subianto later in the evening.
 
"The meeting is Yudhoyono's positive response to Prabowo's request to meet in the wake of the House of Representatives' decision to pass the election bill last week," Imelda said in a statement.
Separately, Democratic Party deputy chairman Syarief Hasan revealed that the meeting would take place at Yudhoyono's residence in Cikeas, Bogor, West Java, and that it was possible they would form a coalition to contest the presidential election in 2019.

Earlier, the Democrats and Gerindra, along with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), lost a crucial battle on the presidential threshold for the 2019 election.

Seeking a zero threshold, they were outnumbered by the six political factions that supported retaining the threshold at 20 seats or 25 percent - meaning that only political parties that garner 20 percent of legislative seats or 25 percent of the popular vote are eligible to field a presidential candidate.

25% presidential threshold is a smart moves to fix Indonesia's political climate
    
The government's decision to retain the 25 percent presidential threshold for the 2019 election is a smart moves and good strategy to build and to fix Indonesia's political system specially building dan strengthening the maturity of political parties and the quality of presidential candicates rivalry in 2019 general election.
 
With 25% presidential threshold, just only top presidential candicates who comes from the best of political parties coalition can be reached a good chance to make their best president candidate will win in the next presidential election in Indonesia.

Political parties such as PDIP, Golkar, Nasdem, Hanura, PPP and PKB which had taken 25% presidential threshold in the 2019 presidential election. Golkar, PPP, PKB and Nasdem has been supporting President Jokowi to go to the next presidential election.

Realizing the current political situation, it is a normal political habits if Prabowo Subianto, the chairman of Gerindra met with former Indonesian President and the chairman of Democrat party, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Some of a political rumors had been spreaded relating to those political manuevers such as between SBY and Prabowo had been talked about the presidential threshold in 2019 election and to build a political coalition between Gerindra and Democrat party to face the next presidential election, because of that political observer have same opinion Prabowo Subianto and Agus Harrymukti Yudhoyono will be together as a political couple against Jokowi and his vice president candicate face to face in the next presidential election.

Some political observer tend to predict that a political confrontation in the next presidential threshold has been happened between some of political parties which had been joined to government coalition such as PDIP, Golkar, Nasdem, Hanura, PPP and PKB versus "long-lasting political rival" such as Gerindra, PKS, Democrat, National Mandate Party and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Finally, political observer tend to predict that at the next cabinet reshuffle, Jokowi will replace minister from PAN to maintain government coalition will be run well until the next presidential election.

Does It Enough To Beat Jokowi?
    
Jokowi's rival such as Prabowo Subianto, Agus Harrymukti Yudhoyono, Yusril Ihza Mahendra and whoever want to join at the next presidential election must have had a good political preparation including a good political effort to beat Jokowi, because if Jokowi with his administration will be succeed on their national plan which describes at Nawa Cita almost nothing a potential challenger for Jokowi to replace him from his throne now.
    
However, some political observer tend to estimate that the national political climate in the last month of 2017 will be started warmer than ever until year 2018 which is called as a political year. So, a political turbulence and political elite manuevering will be dominated a national political discourse. We must alert on these situation everything is go to be worst including its make "a security gap" as affected by political turbulency.

"A security gap" has become a good momentum for a terror group, transnational criminal group and radical group has been intensified their action to make noisy situation and to try to take government attention so that the government apparatus couldn't pay a good attention and devided. Those condition will be tested the ability of Jokowi's leadership to tackle its.
    
I think Jokowi still have bigger chance to win the next election because from several public survey tend to show that public trust to Jokowi's administration still remain high.
    
However, the next presidential election will be as a final political lap for "old-politician" because of that they will struggle with every they have and they passion. Indonesia's political climate has warmer than ever, but with the maturity of democratization in Indonesia, whatever and whenever the change of a national political landscape in Indonesia will be anticipated peacefully. Any comment?.

*) Political observer at Cersia, Jakarta. Previously, he had earned his master at the University of Indonesia (UI).