Outlook of International Politics in 2016

Looking at a number of urgent incidents related to international politics in 2015, it seems that the face of international politics in 2016 will be quite similar with that of 2015. However, attention should be given to several urgent problems in the Southeast Asian region, such as the sharpening tensions in South China Sea (LCS), increasing number of US troops in Australia, and the United States' plan to base its warships in Singapore. In the Middle East and Africa, there are an ongoing Syrian conflict, the conflict between Saudi Arabia and Houthis (Yemeni Shiites) who are assisted by Iran, and the maneuvers of Boko Haram in Nigeria and ISIS. ISIS itself has pledged to attack several countries after its deadly attacks in France on 13th December 2015. Last but not least, the result of the US presidential elections is also interesting for us to follow.

Tensions in South China Sea

The Commander of Chinese Navy Wu Shengli has warned the Commander of US Navy John Richardson of a possibility that a little incident might trigger a war if US always creates provocation in South China Sea.

According to China, the US committed acts of provocation by sending warships to Sprartly Islands, being disputed by China, Taiwan and the Southeast Asian claimants of Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia and the Philippines. China demands the USA to stop such those provocative actions. Previously, Washington said it would conduct a routine patrol in the South China Sea on the basis of freedom of navigation. The US military has conducted its routine patrols and surveillance in the zone of South China Sea for several times. Prior to the ASEAN Summit Meeting on November 2015, two B-52 strategic bomber planes carried out its air patrols, and the US guided-missile destroyer, USS Lassen, also conducted a patrol in the disputed maritime territory.

In response to the South China Sea dispute, Indonesian President Joko Widodo said Indonesia wants all stakeholders to get involved in maintaining stability in the South China Sea. “Indonesia won’t involve in the dispute but we have a legitimate interest in peace and stability. We urge all stakeholders to continue to take actions that could make it credible faith, threatening the peace and the stability of zone,” said Jokowi as quoted by news.com.au.

The South China Sea is a zone with an oil reserve of approximately 213 billion barrels, and gas reserve of approximately 900 trillion cubic feet (tcf). The South China Sea is also a strategic sea-lane for international trade with a total wealth of approximately US$ 5 billion each year. Therefore, it always becomes the contention of interest between China and United States (US) now and forever.

Regarding the dispute of South China Sea, Indonesia will be affected if the situation gets worse. At least, ASEAN regional security might be disturbed, and as a result, the region's tourism sector was likely affected. Besides that, Indonesia has a great interest in the South China Sea. Unfortunately, ASEAN itself  has never been solid when dealing with the dispute. Many stakeholders have been blaming China rather than USA on the dispute as indicated in the recent progress that China has been playing as an aggressor and US as the one to balance China's power.

US Troops in Southeast Asia and Asia Pasific

To re-balance its power in Southeast Asia, the US military has built a military base in Darwin - Australia, signed a Defense Cooperation Agreement (DCA) with Singapore and persuaded the Philippines to allow the US military to station at Subic Bay.

The increasing number of US troops in Darwin - Australia should not only be interpreted as the US way to counterbalance China’s influence that is increasing in the Asia Pacific region, but Indonesia should also consider its strategic impact on Papua. Should US’ interest in Papua in harm, many academia have analyzed that “security instability” will take place. To deal with this, Indonesia should be consistent and rigorous to defend national interest by using good diplomacy. For Singapore, the signing of DCA between Singapore and Washington is aimed to strengthen the two countries' relationship. It is, however, also a way for maintaining the balance of Singapore’s relationship with China. Singapore also aims to be a neutral and honest broker in the South China Sea dispute between China and several ASEAN countries. However, the presence of US aircraft and surveillance warship in Singapore requires some attentions as US might use it to monitor the ASEAN member countries.

ISIS' Fear

It seems that the political condition in the Middle East and African Continent in 2016 will be filled with ISIS manoeuvre and “rebellion” as Boko Haram declared allegiance to ISIS to fight together.  In addition to ISIS, China, US, Russia and several European countries will also become the actors in Middle East and Africa. Triggered by their own worries, those countries will feel disturbed by ISIS’ maneuver to their energy investment in the region.  ISIS itself targets several
countries for the “next attack” after they slammed Paris, France. The countries, threatened by ISIS after the attacks in Bataclan and several other places in Paris, are US, UK, Italy and Singapore.

Related to the progress of international politics in 2016, it is important to see the figure who will run the US presidential elections. Why is it important? Because the thought, sympathy, leadership and empathy of a US President will influence the US policies while these policies will influence global situation due to the country’s position as a “major power”. If Donald Trump were elected as the US President, the relationship between US and Muslim-majority countries will heat up, especially after his controversial statement to ban Muslim visitors to USA has been rejected by several public figures such as a former American Professional Boxer, Muhammad Ali, and the CEO of Facebook  Mark Zuckerberg. Regardless of the figure who will be elected as the US President, ISIS still becomes part of Washington's main priority. Therefore, terrorist threats will still dominate the international politics in 2016.

*) The writer earned his Master degree in Strategic Intelligence Program at the University of Indonesia (UI).