Political Calculation in Second Round of Jakarta Election

Jakarta Election Commission has decided that on a second round of Jakarta elections, Ahok-Djarot will be faced with Anies-Sandi. On March 7th to April 15th, 2017 the couple candidates for Governor and Vice Governor of Jakarta entering the campaign.

The vote will be conducted on April 19th, 2017. The next question is how the political calculations election of Jakarta in the second round?.

The results of the first round (source: pilkada2017.kpu.go.id) shows Ahok-Djarot pair of candidates with the most votes with 2,357,785 votes (42.96%), followed by a pair of candidates Anies-Sandi with the vote totals 2.19353 million votes (39.97%). Agus-Sylvi which should be eliminated in the first round only gained 936 461 votes (17.06%).

Voice of Agus-Sylvi as much as 17.06% must be very tempting for candidates who will compete in the second round. Ahok-Djarot still requires 8% vote to win by assuming voters in the first round still choose in the second round. Anies-Sandi still need 11% to win the elections of Jakarta this. The need for the voice of course make Agus-Sylvi become very attractive and has a high bargaining power.
 
Chance

Ahok-Djarot still can magnify the voice of Jakarta rational voters. Jakarta rational voters large enough, according to the data of Political Indicators Indonesia, the amount of public satisfied with the performance Ahok reached 73.4%. On the other hand Ahok-Djarot voter is only about 43%.

The data indicate there are about 30% of voters are satisfied with the performance of Ahok-Djarot in Jakarta but do not select Ahok-Djarot. This figure is an opportunity for Ahok-Djarot to add the vote.

30% of Jakarta residents are satisfied with the performance Ahok but did not choose a first-round majority chose Anies-Sandi, given the number of voters Agus-Sylvi only 17%. Most likely they do not want to choose Ahok-Djarot for cases of blasphemy.

Ahok-Djarot can acquire a voice of one of them by utilizing a court case which the accused of blasphemy Ahok. Selection of witnesses ease and influential to society can be predicted (although a bit restore) public confidence in the Ahok.

Besides, Ahok-Djarot must keep campaigning on the basis of performance of the performance by showing the data and facts that have been achieved. A high score of performance satisfaction of the people must be treated seriously as an additional voice.

For Anies-Sandi, there are many ways to do to win the elections of Jakarta in the second round. A total of 17% of the votes owned Agus-Sylvi could be taken by Anies-Sandi. In addition Anies-Sandi can also acquire a voice of a rational society of 73.4% only 43% who chose Ahok-Djarot.
 
How to seize the rational voter is to improve the work program that has a sale value and rational for society. Anies-Sandi should no longer need to use the issue primodial to seize additional sound. This could backfire in the current political community can be embarrassed by less healthy.

Political consolidation can be done by Anies-Sandi especially for embracing the Democratic Party and three other parties, PPP, PAN and PKB. Supposedly calculations of political parties based platformtake sideon Anies-Sandi to increase the number of parties supporting the coalition. But the coalition parties at the central level, followed by PPP, PAN and PKB on the government side Joko Widodo will be a challenge.

Impact and Risk

Whoever won the election in second round will be a great asset for the Presidential Election 2019. To date there has been no leader other than Joko Widodo and Prabowo are expected to be developed in the 2019 presidential election.
 
DKI election is not wrong if it is considered as the Pre-Election of Presidential Election. Ahok-Djarot are the representation of Joko Widodo political forces and Anies-Sandi are the representation of Prabowo political forces.

If Ahok-Djarot win, the Joko Widodo political forces will be more solid. Coalition of political parties if it can be linearly between the central and provincial administration will be easier to build the political chemistry. This is a significant step towards 2019. The strength of the coalition of political parties is of particular importance to facilitate policies that require legislative support.
 
The risk if Ahok-Djarot won in the elections of DKI is certainly not small. Ahok-Djarot will receive a lot of attacks mainly on the basis of mass coalition united by a case of blasphemy. This issue could continue to be made primarily to weaken the power base Jokowi facing presidential elections later in 2019.

There is also risk if Anies-Sandi won the elections. For business and industry, campaign promises from Anies-Sandi is 0% of down payment for housing, programs that claimed to be pro-people, especially in the SME sector could be an uncertainty for the business sector.

In addition, if Anies-Sandi won the election there will be a new management style in Jakarta. New things are not necessarily beneficial for the economy and the business sector because the adjustment in style and policy often raises the cost.

The political situation in Jakarta election could create economic sectors and businesses are taking a wait and see attitude. Economic sectors and businesses better off if the elections carried out in one round. Political activity is enough to drain the attention.

Uncertainty

Anyone can still win in the second round of elections DKI. Both spouses margin is smaller than the number of votes Agus-Sylvi should be stopped in the first round. With estimates of the numbers thin margin in the first round, and the bag was taken too little sound.

Given the above conditions than expected in the second round no matter who wins the difference will remain thin. This thin margin that would trigger the losers pursues a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court (MK), in an effort to win the election.

To avoid a lawsuit to the Constitutional Court by the parties are not satisfied with the outcome of the elections, the great hope for Jakarta Election Commission and Election Supervision of Jakarta to be fair and to do early detection and early intervention for violations of the elections. Cracks for violations would create political uncertainty even longer.

*) Stanislaus Riyanta, Intelligence analysts, an Alumnus of the Graduate Studies in Strategic Intelligence, University of Indonesia, Live in Jakarta.