The Regional Election to elect the Governor of Jakarta for 2017-2022

Introduction.

The Regional Election to elect the Governor, the Chief of District and Mayors of all over  Indonesia, who will finish their term in 2017 will be held at the same time in 2017.  Governor of Jakarta Basuki Tjahaya Purnama or popularly called Ahok will finish his first term in 2017 so the Regional Election of Jakarta would be held in 2017.

There are mainly two problems constituting the serious attention of the political observer realizing  that in general as the democratic process people are seriously expecting everything concerning to the Regional Election will run smoothly, peacefully and  will  give the final outcome that can support the continuity  of the regional development run better.

The first problem is the classic crucial situation concerning the administrative complement utilized by the Commission of the General Election  to perfectly conduct the technical election, namely the accurate list of the people who has the right to elect. This anticipation hopefully has been solved correctly by the Commission of the General Election so everybody who has the right to elect their name have been written on the list and they are invited to come to the Election Site to make their choice.

The second serious problem is more political challenge to the Government which has to hold the election peacefully and produce the outcome correctly so not any complains to arise during and after the election  day by anybody. There are various elements that have to be anticipated to guarantee the implementation of the election will go smoothly and peacefully.  This phrases is intended to make the record on the process of the Regional Election of Jakarta covering the general situation, the candidates and the impact to the security situation that might be emerging from the rivalry among the candidates.
 
Assessment

The regional election to elect   the new Governor of Jakarta  is very interesting situation because Ahok the present Governor is about to finish his first term of his position. So he has still the right to join the next Regional election to get the position as the Governor of Jakarta of 2017-2022. Ahok will be apparently the defender in the coming regional election. In many cases the defenders were generally to have various reasons to win. One of the reason is because  he has been popularly known by the respective local people. Ahok politically will join the Regional Election as Independent Candidate because until now (May 23 2016) not any political party asking him to become its party candidate in the coming Regional Election. He has collected a big number of supporters and Citizen Card collected by a group of people under the identification as “Our Friend”, a friendly supporter of Ahok. As the independent candidate he has to be supported by at least one million supporters. So far he has not yet declared his further program if he is elected again. Especially the program that indicates his attention to the lower class among the citizens of Jakarta and to complete his program to perfectly solve the problem of floods, traffic jam in the city and urbanization.

There are also various problem in Ahok's  first position as the Governor of Jakarta,  Jakarta is the capital city of Indonesia with the delicate situation but crucial as also faced by the capital city of other countries. In his  term Ahok had apparently performed enough of his capability to manage the Governor job. He was also to be recorded  as the firm Governor in his leadership similar to the late Lieut. Gen of the Marine Ali Sadikin the Governor of Jakarta in the early period of the New Order. However Ahok was recorded as hard and rude in his personal attitude against the citizens of Jakarta with  the majority are Betawi origin, Javanese, Moslem, Malay and various groups of people coming from all around the countries with various character and profession. The society of Jakarta   are  consisting of might be 30 % are of good living, 50 % of medium living and 20% of relatively low and poor level of living. So it is likely Governor Ahok with such kind of leadership is only considered  good by might be around 50 % of the Jakarta citizens and 40 % are complaining in various field and might be 10 % considered Ahok as bad leader. Some politicians and intellectuals  considered Ahok as the Governor who is forcefully to lead Jakarta based on mainly the interest of those people with 30% and good living standard, a part of 50 % medium living standard and might be lack of thinking about the interest of a part of the medium living standard and occasionally forget to the interest of the low living standard of the citizens. This situation will be definitely becoming worst image when the life of the members of the media of information are uncertain so they tend to criticize Ahok with various tone in their media.

Incidentally to face the Regional Election of 2017 there are also a number of persons who are very keen to join the Regional Election of 2017. They are likely Yusril Ihzamahendra, Sandiaga Uno, Akhmad Dhani, Adyaksa Daud and other more figures. There is prediction there will be totally three pairs of Candidates of the Governor of Jakarta  on the day of the Regional Election.

Since in term of physical agenda the administration of Ahok have been appreciated by might be more than 50 % of the Jakarta society he is really strong enough as the defender. How ever there are at least four kinds of problem that could be deliberated to attack the reputation of Ahok, namely the case of the reclamation of the Gulf of Jakarta, the price of the buying of the land of Hospital of Sumber Waras  and the land clearing of the area of Kalijodo and Luar Batang which is considered unwise and unclear policy by the people. This four cases could be likely only understood by the educated societies but the social and economic impact are difficult to be understood by generally low level society.

However many intellectual and national figures tend to realize that the image of Ahok is strong enough in term of performing as the Governor looking at the performance of various aspects such as his administration planning of the Program of the development, the implementation of the Program, the management of the budget and to control the result. He is also open leader and ready to discus any problem openly. However no one has perfect personality in the world. However there are a number of elements which  are frightened by many figures in Indonesia if it is exploited by someone who does not want Ahok to be re-elected in the coming Regional Election. This element is popularly called in Indonesian abbreviation  SARA, the word S mean Tribe, A means Religion, R means Race and A means  Rivalry element among Group. Ahok  definitely  has the conditions to be attacked using the element of SARA.

However luckily the Jakarta citizens are educated and information minded so they are in fact to have the objective understanding and easily to be called for dialogue. The use of the electronic phone is helping much if a kind of correct information has to be distributed among the citizens. So there is still optimism that SARA is commonly considered as absurd technique in the campaign.

Some social disturbances  had happened recently in Jakarta  resulted from the mass movement, but it were likely because of the weak control of the mass mobilization  so it is easy to be infiltrated by the third bad elements. During the campaign period the regulation concerning the mobilization of the masses certainly will be applied more firmly controlled  by the Police.

It is expected as resulted by the researches done by various group of intellectuals  the political campaign during the period of Election campaign people will reject the agitation exploiting the issue of SARA created by unknown person. This situation is possible to take place because various effort to play off among the candidates accordingly the issue of SARA has been detected since now. Political Party leaders and free intellectual are actively to remind that people should not be influenced by the issue of SARA by anyone else.

A number of intellectual are analyzing that since Ahok is considered good in physical development in  general and it is impossible to be defeated by social issue such as SASRA, the other candidates should look for other logic issue to open  the weaknesses  of Ahok. According to the analysis  Ahok is predicted difficult to defend the case of Luar Batang and Kalijodo concerning the complete background of the clearing of the place to be looked from the low level society interest point of view. In this kind of discussion it is believed Ahok will not be able to prove his policy protecting the interest of the  low level of the society. Wisely to defeat Ahok the other candidates should not attack him using SASRA element but rationally ask him to prove that his administration protected the poor.

The Candidates of the Governor

Until recently (May 23  2016) it is not clear the final candidates beside Ahok who will defend his position through the Regional Election to get his term as the Governor of DKI of 2017-2022. No political party has declared its decision to support its internal cadre  as the Candidate to be the rival of Ahok. Ahok himself decided to join the Regional Election as independent candidate because until to day  (May 23 2016) not any political party ask him  to become its candidate.

Political rumor said the political party of PAN has the idea to decide Suyoto who is  now  the Chief of District of Bojonegoro East Jawa to become the Governor Candidate in the coming Regional Electon of DKI in 2017. However PAN is little bit vague because in the last general election PAN won only two seats in the Local House of Representatives. Logically PAN is of the opinion that  PAN has not enough supporters in the society and appointing his good cadre in the Regional Election of DKI in 2017 is considered as political speculation.

In the meantime the political party of PDI-P is still also ambiguous to appoint  its good internal cadre to become the Candidate of the Governor of DKI, in this case Risma the Mayor of Surabaya as one of successful cadre of PDI-P in Surabaya East Jawa is analyzed whether yes or not to be appointed  to be the Candidate of the Governor of DKI in the coming Regional Election of 2017. But rumor said Risma is vague to accept the appointment. To see the attitude of Risma it is likely Megawati chief of PDI-P is becoming also vague to ask Risma as the Candidate of the Governor  of DKI in the coming  Regional Election of DKI. There is speculation that  in the last minute PDI-P will appoint  Yusril Ihzamahendra as its candidate or supporting Ahok as the Candidate of The Governor of DKI in the Regional Election DKI in 2017.

In the mean time the open respect once stated by the new Chief of the Golkar Party Setyo Novanto to Ahok creating the speculation that the Golkar Party will support Ahok as the Candidate of the Governor of Jakarta in the coming Regional Election.

There is prediction there will be three pairs of candidates namely Ahok and two pairs more candidates will likely join the Regional Election of Jakarta in 2017, so that there will be one round of election with someone as the winner with more than 50% of electors or two round with two candidates to get more 35 % of electors in the first round.
 
Security threat

Until now there is not any prediction that the possible threat which is able to stop the implementation of the Regional Election especially in Jakarta is potential for taking place.

The place of the implementation of the people to make their choice will definitely secured by a group of security unit consisting of various local element working together under the command of the Police.
The impact of the effective political education among the citizens of Jakarta will likely produce the enough understanding among the citizens of Jakarta on the element of law, ethic, peaceful and security as the common interest of this country capital.
 
The Conclusion

The Regional Election to elect the new Governor of Jakarta for 2917-2012 held in 2017 will be very delicate because it is likely difficult problem for the Political Parties to get the credible internal candidate to become the rival of Ahok. Ahok is likely considered in a strong position to be defeated. The Regional Election of Jakarta in 2017 is likely becoming the political battle to defeat Ahok by a number of rivals.

To defeat Ahok the utilizing  the issue of SARA is not prospective. Ahok can only be defeated by the better performance of policy presented by any other candidate as the better concept to solve the classic problem of DKI, such as flood, traffic jam in the city and the urbanization. An analyst predicted that in the Regional Election of Jakarta in 2017 there will be three pairs of candidates including Ahok as the Governor Candidates.
 
The general understanding of the citizens of Jakarta on legal, ethic, peaceful and security as the common interest of the citizens will definitely influence the existing peaceful and security situation of this country capital.

*) Writer is a political and security observer. A Former chief of State Intelligence Coordination Agency (BAKIN).