Indonesia is Able to Prevent ISIS Attack

Chief of State Intelligence Agency (BIN) Sutiyoso suggested that there is high probability that ISIS changes its strategy by attacking innocent people because of their repetitive losses in Middle East. They suffered losses in many areas in Iraq and Syria. Thirty per cent of its territory was seized back by the governments and their allies.

"Because of such losses, they change their strategy that is direct attack to any countries by sending the terrorists to the countries or using their sympathizers who already live in the country," said Sutiyoso at Stasiun Tugu Yogyakarta prior to his departure to Jakarta on Sunday (10/07/2016). He further added that due to this change in strategy, all must increase the alertness and thus revising the terrorism act becomes more urgent.

The intelligence observer circle assess that ISIS and its sympathizer in the form of "lone wolf" are currently implementing the balloon theory because due to its recessiveness, ISIS is now disunited. In order to keep the morale of its sympathizers high and ideology wise (including economic wise), they need to maintain their existence. One way to do so is by committing suicide attack and of course not in Syria. The balloon theory is indeed happening. ISIS was pushed in Syria and the impact will develop in other regions.

In national scale, the balloon theory is also occurring in Indonesia. The radical group concentrated in Poso has been pushed by the joint operation of Indonesian Police (Polri) and Army (TNI). This group was then fleeing to Bima, but still be pursued. Finally, they spread to various regions including Surabaya and recently Surakarta then committed a suicide bombing that might have affiliation with what happened in Baghdad, Medina, Jeddah, Dhaka, Istanbul, and other places that seemed to be commanded by the ISIS leader Abu Muhamad Al Adnani (the spokesman), to its sympathizers to conduct attack during Ramadhan and afterwards.

In line with Sutiyoso, an analysis from HIS group published by AFP mentioned that the territory controlled by radical militant Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) in Syria and Iraq was reported on the wane. The analysis suggested that ISIS lost 12 percent of its territory up to mid-2016.

ISIS, which has declared its caliphate in some regions in Iraq and Syria since 2014, started losing its territory after the US led air strike. "In 2015, ISIS 'territory shrank around 12.800 km square or 14% into 78 thousand km square. During the first 6 months of 2016, its territory shrank more around 12%. Up to 4 July 2016, ISIS controls only around 68.300 km square in Iraq and Syria. In addition, ISIS' revenue is also decreasing from around US$ 80 million in mid-2015 to only US$ 56 million in March 2016," mentioned HIS in its reports.

In Syria, ISIS is now repressed by President Bashar al-Assad regime supported by Russian military and Kurdish-Arab alliance supported by US coalition and Syrian rebel group. Meanwhile in Iraq, the military forces supported by US coalition and the pro-government militias successfully conquered some ISIS bases. ISIS' post in Manbij, Syria, is now besieged. This post is located within a strategic route for logistic distribution between Syria and Turkey.

In last March, ISIS was repelled from the ancient city of Palmyra, Syria and in June, ISIS was expelled from the city of Fallujah, Iraq. In 2015, ISIS lost an important region Tal Abyad, which is located between the Syrian border with Turkey and also lost city of Ramadi, Iraq. In last May, the Pentagon mentioned that ISIS has lost 45 percent of its territory in Iraq and 16-20 per cent of territory in Syria.

A senior researcher of IHS, Columb Strack, referred to the shrinking of the area is likely to mean that ISIS will increase the attacks that triggered a lot of casualties. "Along with the shrinking territory of ISIS and clearer fact that they failed the government projects, the group is reordering their priorities," he said.

"Unfortunately, we estimate an increase in attacks that triggered a lot of casualties and economic infrastructure sabotage, in the territory of Iraq and Syria, as well as other regions, including Europe," added Strack.

Meanwhile, Pentagon Press Secretary Peter Cook mentioned that two senior leaders of ISIS, the Deputy Minister of War Basim Muhammad Ahmad Sultan al-Bajari and Motul Regional Military Commander Hatim Talib al-Hamduni were killed in an air strikes by US-led coalition near ISIS' fortress in Mosul, Iraq.

Al-Bajari was a former member of Al-Qaeda who joined ISIS in 2014 and spied for control of Mosul. Meanwhile Al-Hamduni was a military commander and head of the military police in Mosul. In addition, the international coalition forces led by the United States killed at least 250 suspected militants of ISIS and destroying 40 vehicles around Falluja, Iraq.

The Strategies to Prevent ISIS Attack

ISIS intention and ability to continue to launch attacks against the "near enemies" and "far enemies" are still very strong, as long as the sectarian conflicts in Syria and Iraq have not been resolved, because those countries are where the majority of members of ISIS settle now.

Although, according to the CIA, ISIS' activities in social media, especially twitter has declined, but the CIA Director John Brennan declared that ISIS' ability to continue to spread the narratives, as well as inciting and launching attacks still remain significant.

Domestically, the Chief of BIN Sutiyoso signaled that there is some probability for ISIS to attack Indonesia. This should be a "strong signal" to the state apparatus, as well as the entire people of Indonesia. The indication stated by Sutiyoso has indeed strong reliability for terror groups in Indonesia are quite active such as Santoso's group in Poso and JADKN (Jamaah Ansarut Khilafah Nusantara).

Besides, there are still many transnational organizations growing in Indonesia, a group of former combatant from Syria that soon may enter Indonesia, a group of former detainees in terrorism cases that still have radical thoughts, and also some intolerance group whose activities have made Indonesia a fertile soil for roots of terrorism. The question is, what is the strategy to ward off the terror and ISIS?.

There are some strategies to counter terrorism and ISIS in Indonesia, namely: first, to increase public awareness of the threat of terror, an overview of the dangers of terror must be well-informed to the society. In theory, the choice to conduct a terror rather than other actions or other means to realize the ideals of a person or group is caused by several things. Firstly, terror is the most effective way to demonstrate the existence of a minority or marginalized group. Secondly, terror mirrors and is the implications of the personality of the leader who leads a poor-managed organisation and it then becomes a group culture in general.

Second, the government needs to do a lot of things, especially to prevent terrorism. Terrorism should be dealt with early prevention. To that end, the government must stand in the forefront in the fight against terrorism by declaring war against terror groups. The war against terror groups means that the state must involve religious organizations such as NU, Muhammadiyah, etc. to jointly declare "war" against terrorism not only in rhetoric, but by more than that. Terrorists and their supporters must be declared as invaders or rebels who should be expelled or eradicated fully.

Third, the prevention of terrorism requires a strong intelligence performance. Intelligence apparatus needs to be enhanced so that they are able to provide early warning and early detection of the dangers of terrorism. Here is why the Chief of BIN urgently requested for a revision of the Anti-Terrorism Act by adding a special authority to BIN.

Fourth, the government should proactively encourage the community to exert social control in their environment. Society can serve as the spearhead of the state to prevent radical understanding to breed. Counter radicalization should be done by the community as a broadest and most adjacent entity to the terror group.

Fifth, from early warning and early detection of the threats, the government can do the de-radicalization measures to prevent acts of radical and terror in society. To make the deradicalization program hit the right target, the project officers need to understand that the attacks are usually preceded by recruitment, cultivation of values or ideologies (doctrinal), and after the prospective agents have a strong confidence and militant loyalty then they arrange the acts of terrorism by adding some strategies. Within this small group, the potential perpetrators gain some understandings and doctrines that violence is a method to reach a goal. To make the indoctrination easier, the terrorist groups choose young people whose ages are between 15 and 35 years who experience a wavering condition, identity crisis, even some turned out to be lack of religious understandings.

Sixth, the Ministry of Communications and the entire community of the ministry in all state departments need to create synergy and cooperation to deter and shut down the activity of ISIS and terror groups in social media through cyber patrols and deployment of counter narrative measures towards the radical narratives spread by the terror group either verbally, directly people to people, or by writings in books and printed media, and also through other media such as videos that are easily accessible on internet.

Cyber patrol will reduce even stop the terrorists to succeed in its action, complicate them to gain the knowledge to develop strategies and narrow the opportunities for terrorists to spread the techniques to commit terror over the internet that they often upload through their private connection or from internet cafes that open 24 hours non-stop. The prohibition of the operation of Internet cafes to open 24 hours non-stop has also become an important part of the "rules of war" against terrorists because these efforts could diminish the chance of terrorists to spread its influence to the community, especially our youth.

*) The author is an alumni of University of Indonesia's Post-Graduate Program.