The Death of Santoso Does Not Mean the End of Terrorism Threat

The leader of Eastern Indonesia Mujahidin (MIT) group in Poso, Santoso, was allegedly dead in a shootout between the terrorist group and Tinombala Task Force in Poso, Central Sulawesi. As one of most wanted group leader in Indonesia, the news of Santoso's death is quite attractive to public. Santoso alias Abu Wardah was known as a figure involved in some attacks and terrorism activities in Poso. He was also involved in some attacks in Solo, Bogor, Depok, and Tambora.

Nobody expected him to be the leader of terrorist activities in some regions. The people of Dusun Bakti Agung of Tambarana Trans Village of Poso Pesisir Utara, Poso, where Santoso used to live as well as his family cannot believe that Santoso, who earned money by selling books door to door, selling vegetables, fruits and sometimes becoming a construction worker, can lead a terror attack.

Santoso's name became famous after fire shooting towards police officers at office of Bank Central Asia (BCA) in Palu on 25 May 2011. Ustaz Yasin who that time was pioneering the establishment of Jamaah Anshorut Tauhid (JAT) in Poso then laid his eyes on him. In February 2012, Ustaz Yasin appointed Santoso to be Qoid (leader) in Asykari JAT Poso region because Santoso still held some firearms and ammunitions. In late 2012 or early 2013, Santoso together with Daeng Koro declared the establishment of MIT. Thereafter, they conducted recruitment and military trainings (tadrib asykari) for some time at Biru Mountains area, Poso Pesisir. Santoso himself led some of the military trainings (tadrib asykari) at Biru Mountains area, Poso Pesisir and at Malino Mountains, Soyojaya District, Morowali Regency. The participants were from Poso, Morowali, Java, Kalimantan, Sumatera and NTB.

Since January this year, the Tinombala Task Force, which is a joint task force between Indonesian Police (Polri) and Indonesian Military (TNI), has successfully sieged Santoso alias Abu Wardah and his group at Biru Mountains. This task force has also successfully cut the communication between Santoso and his group and its sympathizers as well as families. Because they got cornered, some of Santoso's followers decided to go down the mountain and yielded, therefore the group became weaker.

On 18th of July, there occurred a shootout between Tinombala Task Force and the terrorist group in Sambarana Mountains, Poso on which Santoso who had been hunted for a long time was expected shot dead. The shootout took place around 5 PM local time. The task force initially found 5 unknown individuals, 3 men and 2 women. Two men were hit by police gunfire, one of them allegedly Santoso, while three others managed to escape.

After the death of Santoso, the leadership in MIT was passed to Santoso's hand man, either Basri or Ali Kalora. The 21 men of MIT members were in fact divided into two groups. Five were under Santoso and Basri, while the rest were under Ali Kalora, including one Uighur man who allegedly located in Tamanjeka.

The Threat of Terror Has Not Ended

The allegation of the death of one of the most wanted terrorist leader in Indonesia, Santoso is definitely a good news for the people of Indonesia, at least for several reasons, among others: first, Santoso's death clearly illustrates that the TNI and Polri are reliable in handling the threat of terror. Second, the death of Santoso clearly was an achievement because it happens sooner than the targeted deadline, which is August 2016, as was said by the former Chief of Polri, Gen. Badrodin Haiti. Third, this death of Santoso will also indirectly make people aware that the terrorist movement will not succeed forever because their actions that full of violence are against the values of humanity.
    
Nonetheless, the allegation of Santoso's death obviously will not lessen the threat of terror attacks in Indonesia because the cells of terror organizations will continue to grow by the time being and their methods of terror will also develop at any time. Notwithstanding, the capabilities and intentions of the terror groups to realize their dreams by performing random attacks are still very high. In the case of MIT, there have been some candidates that will replace Santoso, Basri or Ali Kalora. This shows that the structure and regeneration of the terror group is still remaining in place, although the top leader has been killed. Not only that, the terror groups in Indonesia and anywhere in the world will continue to carry out attacks with all kinds of modes, as long as they assess and analyze that the current world order is not yet in line with the understanding of their ideology.
    
Should Santoso be really dead, terror groups and terror cells, including the "lone wolves" are expected to conduct an act of revenge or an attack on the grounds of, among others: first, the terror group will continue to demonstrate its existence after the death of Santoso by executing attacks maybe inside the city. If this happens, the military and police will handle it much easier. Second, the remaining members of the MIT will continue to attack or ambush Tinombala Task Force members who were on patrol, therefore the vigilance when patrols should be increased. Third, it is likely that the MIT members will terrorize the people by kidnapping and murdering the abductees. Fourth, terrorist cells in other areas that are affiliated with MIT are going to retaliate in their respective regions. Fifth, the remaining members of the MIT will not reciprocate, but they will consolidate and when the Polri and TNI are off guard, they will execute "sudden death attack".
    
*) The author is political and security observer. Residing at Bekasi, West Java.