The Political Situation is Dynamic

In line with the decreasing image of the New Order and the   increasing demand based on the Reform Spirit the Political situation of the country has led the Group of Power lead by PDI-P under the slogan of Reform to have pushed Jokowi, the Mayor of Solo to win the election for the Governor of Jakarta in the year   of 2011 and then PDI-P was pushing him to win the Presidential Election in 2014 and now PDI-P is trying to push him as the Presidential Candidate of the Presidential Election of 2019.
      
Incidentally after the Presidential Election in 2014 with President Jokowi as the winner to support him politically it was established the Government Coalition by PDI-P supported by the Golkar Party, NASDEM Party and Hanura Party, mainly in the House of Representative to gain the Parliamentary support for any  Government Policy which is needed the Parliamentary approval. Later joining the Government Coalition were also PAN, PKB and PPP.   
Prabowo as the rival of President Jokowi in the Presidential Election of 2014 decided that Gerindra Party does not join the Government Coalition or to create The Opposition Group against the President Jokowi Government, but Gerindra will be apparently  critical to the Government Policy to support the implementation of the national development better. Similar to Gerindra Party is also The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).  
                              
The convenient political situation has been established in this country until 2016, when Ahok in his political campaign to join the Regional Election of Jakarta was making blasphemy in one of  his speech in Pulau Seribu. The blasphemy speech of Ahok has  provoked wide range of mass protest from mainly the religious society, creating the uncertain situation.

In the mean time the strong impression on the Government protection to Ahok has created the political hatred from the  masses and the supporters of Anies and Sandiaga in the political  group of the masses to the group of Government Coalition.
 
However the soft political attitude of Prabowo in relation with President Jokowi definitely has kept the situation permanently good and friendly. The good relation between President Jokowi and Prabowo has definitely control the attitude of the political on the masses level until finally the political tension affected by the Regional Election of Jakarta and the legal process of Ahok criminal case finished. Definitely the soft political attitude of Prabowo is appreciated.

The political tension between the supporters of Anies-Sandiaga protected by Gerindra Party, PKS, PAN against the supporters of Ahok-Djarot protected by the Government Coalition to have been controlled perfectly.

Incidentally the moment of the Presidential Election in 2019 comes and another political tension could be unlikely avoided. However Prabowo is still demonstrating his soft, friendly and respecting President Jokowi so his Gerindra Party has been also act peacefully.

Apparently the political tension concerning the Presidential Election in 2019 could happen again both in the House of Representative and moving out to the ground level if the political leaders are not working wisely and proportionally.

PDI-P has successfully brought Jokowi to win the Presidential Election of 2014 and now is trying to push Jokowi to win his second term as the President of The Republic of Indonesia in the Presidential Election of 2019.

Unfortunately Ahok lost his struggle to control DKI in the Regional Election of 2016. Likely PDI-P as the Master of the Game  who has been successful to strengthen the Government Coalition and to keep The Golkar Party, NASDEM Party, HANURA, PKB and PPP supporting the Government coalition PDI-P also has to change The Law on The General Election to be beneficial to President Jokowi.
For this reason Minister of Home Affairs, who is the political cadre of PDI-P is strongly ask the House of Representative to amend the existing Law of the Presidential Election of 2014 but permanently implementing the Presidential Threshold of 20% seats or25 % of national votes.

Clearly in his strategy the Law on Presidential Election of 2019  could create the situation that it should be participated only by Single Presidential Candidate in the Presidential Election of 2019, namely Jokowi.

Definitely The Minister of Home Affairs Tjahyo Kumolo has to  design the Bill of The Presidential Threshold of 20 % seats or 25 % of the national vote to be approved by The House of Representative.

His strategy has been approved by The House of Representative but four Political Party Factions (Gerindra, PAN, PKS and Democratic Parties) declared as abstain and leaving the plenum meeting. With this action those four Political Party Faction (Gerindra, PAN, PKS and Democratic Party) are showing they do not join the plenum meeting and left the plenum meeting because of abstain, it was not just walk out. In total Gerindra, PAN, PKS and Democratic Parties  are out of any responsibility concerning to the decision.

Though Gerindra, PAN, PKS and Democratic Parties could not make legal complaint to the Constitutional Court but it is hoped the Constitutional Court will cancel the new Law on General Election which is just approved by The House of Representative. On this situation, Perluddem is saying it will make the legal complaint concerning the Decision of The House of Representative which is considered as against the Law on the General Election. Perluddem is a mass organization which is watching the Law on the General Election.

One of the Perluddem activist, Lucius said The House of Representative is dealing with thousand of problems, but  apparently all of those problems are the political will on how to get more power. Likely Lucius idea is in line with the political saying, which said: Power tend to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.
 
Defiitely Perluddem is willing the Constitutional Court to check whether or not the political power in the House of Representative to have been manipulated to get more power.

In conclusion the plenum meeting of The House of Representative on Friday July 21, 2017 could be noted:
The plenum meeting of The House of Representative attended by  PDI-P, Golkar Party, NASDEM Party, HANURA Party, PKB and PPP to have approved The new Law on General Election which is applying the Presidential Threshold of 20 % seats or 25 % of national vote is against The Law on General Election and The presidential Election, because these two National Event will be held instantly.

The Political Parties Faction of non-Government Coalition  (Gerindra, PKS, PAN and Democratic Parties) were leaving out of the House of Representative building, to show they are abstain, they do not make any decision whether agree or not. Abstain means it did not make any choice, they did not participate to the meeting and they did not commit to any responsible of the decision approved byte meeting. Political Parties of non-Goverrtnent Coalition officially left the building so that they are not responsible to the result of the meeting. The plenum meeting is only attended by Golkar Party, PDI -P, NASDEM Party, HANURA Party, PKB and PPP.
 
PAN is definitely agree to support the Government of President Jokowi in National Development but PAN will not support President Jokowi as the Presidential Candidate in the Presidential Election of 2019. Definitely Zulkifly Hasan the Chairmanof PAN likely also feels eligible to become the Presidential or Vice Presidential Candidate in the Presidential Election of 2019.

Analysts tend to predict if The Presidential Thresholt of 20 % seats or 25 % of national votes to be cancelled by the Constitutional Court there will be likely more than two pairs of Presidential Candidates in the Presidential Eletion of 2019.

One of the Perluddem activist, Lucius said The House of Representative is dealing with thousand of problems, but  apparently all of those problems are the will on how to get more  power. In the Political Life it is also popular the word: Power tend to corrupt and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

Definitely Perluddem is likely willing the Constitutional Court to check whether or not the political power in the House of Representative to have been manipulated their power for the   higher power or to save their respective political interest.

On Golkar problem, Setya Novanto debacle definitely needs support of the Government to solve it, accordingly it is definitely clear Golkar Party declaring that Golkar Party will support President Jokowi whenever it is needed. While NASDEM and HANURA Party are the political parties born in the beginning of the Reform Era as the Golkar Party partial power. This two political parties are likely lack of regeneration and membership, it is definitely the problem of the coming years. For this reason NASWDEM and HANURA needs firmly to be recognized as important political parties.

Indonesian high Political Dynamic is indicating the existence of the high spirit of the Indonesian to struggle however it is hoped all what happened in the political field is purely arising from the Indonesian Origine.

*) Political and Security Observer at Cersia, Jakarta.