The Future Pattern of a Terror Attack

The suicide attacker who detonated his explosives amid an outdoor Kurdish wedding party in southeastern Turkey, killing at least 51 people, 69 people were wounded, with 17 of them in critical condition was an Islamic State group child as young as 12 years old. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said, decrying the attack as an apparent attempt by Islamic State extremists to destabilize the nation by exploiting ethnic and religious tensions. He again blamed the attack on the Islamic State, but there was no immediate claim of responsibility. The pro-Kurdish political party HDP condemned the attack on the wedding, which it said was attended by many of its party members.

The bombing late Saturday in Gaziantep was the deadliest attack in Turkey this year. It comes amid ongoing struggles between the government and Kurdish militants linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party, known as the PKK, and as the country is still reeling from the aftermath of last month's failed coup attempt, which the government has blamed on U.S.-based Muslim cleric Fethullah Gulen and his followers. Erdogan said immediately after the Gaziantep attack, which he blamed on IS, that any strategy "meant to incite the citizens against each other along ethnic and religious lines will not work."

It said in a statement that it was "quite significant" that the attack, which it also blamed on IS, came hours after the Kurdistan Communities Union, a militant organization that includes the PKK, announced plans to try to negotiate to end a three-decade conflict between Kurdish militants and the Turkish government. "This attack targets those determined and persistent in peace, resolution, and those struggling for democracy, equality, freedom and justice," the HDP said. "The attack was planned to disable the spread of peace and success of possible negotiations."

Multiple opposition parties denounced the attack, as did many foreign governments including the U.S., Germany, Austria, Russia, Egypt, Sweden, Greece, France, Bahrain, Qatar and Jordan and global institutions including the United Nations, the European Union and NATO. "We stand by our ally Turkey and pledge to continue to work closely together to defeat the common threat of terrorism," said U.S. Ambassador to Turkey John Bass. In the Vatican, Pope Francis led hundreds of people in silent prayer for the victims of the attack, concluding by asking "for the gift of peace for everyone."

Security expert Metin Gurcan, a former Turkish military officer and columnist for the online newspaper Al-Monitor, said that IS view the attack as "hitting two birds with one stone" - as retaliation for Syrian Kurdish advances on their forces in Syria, and for Turkey's attacks on IS targets. Gurcan said in an email to The Associated Press that IS has been trying to agitate or exploit ethnic and religious tensions in Turkey, and "we know very well to what extent wedding attacks can sow disorder in nation's social fabric from the Afghanistan experience."

The extremist group has a history of using children as weapons, sending them to their death strapped with explosives and putting them on front lines in Iraq and Syria.

The group maintains an army of child soldiers, which it calls "cubs of the caliphate," and seeks to re-educate children at IS-run schools, indoctrinating them with their own radical version of Islam and exposing them to violent acts including beheadings as part of a concerted effort to build a new generation of militants. IS videos have shown boys killing IS opponents through beheadings and shootings. But the practice is not restricted to the Islamic State group and has been used by other militant groups. Here's a look at some:

ISLAMIC STATE GROUP

The group has deployed child suicide bombers to stage attacks in both Iraq and Syria. Among the most deadly attacks was a bombing at a youth soccer game at a stadium south of Baghdad on March 25, 2016. A bomber - believed be a teenager - detonated his explosives as officials were handing out trophies to players after the tournament, killing 29 and wounding 60. The Islamic State group claimed responsibility and released a photo of the attacker where he appears to be no more than 16 years old.
 Nearly half of those killed were also children, participating in the soccer game or cheering from the stands. The UN's children's agency, UNICEF, said in a recent report that thousands of children have been abducted in Iraq. Girls, the group says, are at greatest risk of being sold into sexual slavery while boys are often forced into becoming combatants or suicide bombers.

BOKO HARAM

Human Rights groups and UNICEF report a dramatic increase in Boko Haram's use of children as suicide bombers. In a report earlier this year, UNICEF said one in five suicide attacks claimed by the militant group across Nigeria, Cameroon and Chad are now carried out by children. In Nigeria, Human Rights Watch said that since Boko Haram began its attacks in 2009 it has recruited hundred, and possibly thousands, of youngsters and used dozens, mostly girls, as suicide bombers.

AL-QAIDA

The global terrorist network has a history of recruiting children and training them to be suicide bombers. The leader of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, used teenagers as suicide bombers to fight the American occupation in Iraq before he was killed in a US airstrike in 2006. Al-Qaida in Iraq eventually developed into the modern day Islamic State group.

RADICAL PALESTINIAN GROUPS

Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other militant groups run summer camps that seek to indoctrinate Palestinian children with violent anti-Israel ideologies. These groups have not sent young children on suicide missions, though during the second Palestinian uprising in the early 2000s, several Palestinians as young as 16 carried out suicide bombings.

During a current wave of violence, dozens of Palestinian teenagers have carried out or been accused of carrying out stabbing attacks on Israelis, with the youngest perpetrator just 11 years old. The attackers are believed to have acted individually and were not sent by organized groups.

YEMEN

In Yemen, home to one of the world's most heavily armed civilian populations, boys often learn how to handle weapons from an early age. In the country's current conflict, irregular forces from both the pro-government and rebel sides have incorporated teenagers into their ranks. (http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2016/08/22/child-bomber-in-turkey-not-the-only-violent-use-of-children-.html).

Future Pattern Attack

Learning from a number of a terrorist attack at several countries in Europe, Middle East, South Asia, Africs ect, we could learn that a number of a trigger factor which an extrimist group has been launched their attacks such as, Islamic State extremists to destabilize the nation by exploiting ethnic and religious tensions, the excess of a political furor and political destablisment, the rampant of an intolerance spirit and last but not least as as impact from poverty and global uncertainty.

Interesting to predict how the future pattern of a terrorist attack would be implemented by them?. Previously, we read and hear from some sources that many of tactics and strategies would be practiced by a terror group such as poisonious water, truck crashed into a crowd of people as what happened in Nice, France, etc.

There are several possible forms of terror attacks in the future. First, the most recent attack in France using a vehicle that crashed into a crowd was quite successful to create terror. Such action is also less expensive and tend to be more secure because it would be difficult to detect. It is cheaper because the equipment is widely available and quite safe because the equipment used is not a prohibited one. The target of terror, a crowd of people, is also quite easy to find.

Second, the actions was taking advantage of the traffic congestion in some areas.

Third, the attacks might be in the form of internet attacks or other that require technology expertise aiming to disrupt the economic system, the banking system, important/confidential data thievery and so on.

Fourth, the older models of attacks such as hijacking, suicide bombings, ambushes, and attack on the offices of the police, kidnapping VIP and VVIP and others will remain in place, just waiting for our inadvertence.
 
Fifth, psycho or crazy people, homeless, and elderly might be targeted by a terror group to recruit them as a suicide bomber.

*) The author is a terror observer. Earned his master at the University of Indonesia (UI). Previously, earned  his bachelor degree at the University of Jember (Unej).