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The dynamics of East Asia security and stability has become the independent variable of Japan's strategic policy to transform its national self defense forces. The East Asia (regional) principal security challenges situate North Korea and China as serious concerns for Japan.
First challenge comes from North Korea's Military buildup and provocative actions. The 21st century is witnessing a rapid change in global power balance along with globalization. The security environment around Japan has become increasingly severe as represented by nuclear and missile development by North Korea. Transnational threats grounded on technological progress including international terrorism and cyber attacks are also increasing their significance.
North Korea military buildup is increasing from time to time. Regarding its ballistic missile launched on 7 February 2016 following its nuclear test on January 6, 2016, these two military actions have likely threatened East Asia stability. In fact, North Korea has continued the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs as well as its provocative behavior such as: 1) sinking of South Korean submarine; 2) shelling of a South Korean island; and 3) border incident followed by military mobilization.
Second challenge comes from China's advancement of its military capacity without transparency, and its further activities in the sea and air space. The serious concerns for China relates to some principle strategic issues such as: 1) China's advancement of its military capacity by its defense budget (China's budget counted about 216 billion, much higher compared to Japan which is 45.8 billion); 2) China's coercive behavior in Senkaku Island which caused East Asia tensions; and 3) China's unilateral revisionist actions related to Scarborough Shoal incident and South China sea artificial islands.
The third concerns are some major trends in East Asian geopolitical dynamics such as economic ties with China, increasing assertiveness of China and North Korea, increasing engagement of the United States in the security realm, and balancing by regional states. These issues become most concerned in Japan's self defense forces transformations.
East Asia needs a balancing pole to deter North Korea and China's actions. As the First strategy of Japan to transform its defense forces, Japan has reinterpreted its national regulations on military forces, dubbed the Japan's Security Bills.
Japan's controversial security bills have passed the Upper House of the Diet, ushering in a new era in Japanese security policy that allows the country to deploy its military overseas and play a much more prominent strategic role in peacekeeping and collective self-defense. Viewed from afar, the changes may seem realistic and promising. But for Japan, in line with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's goal of Japan's 'proactive contribution to peace', the move represents a significant shift in post-war defense policy away from the limited use of force and pacifist sentiment expressed in the Constitution to a more expansive interpretation.
According to Australian Strategic Policy Institute publications, the bills include a number of important policy changes. The most significant is undoubtedly the use of collective self-defense, which allows Japan to deploy its military to support US' armed forces and other countries in situations that have an 'important influence on Japan's peace and security'.
Up until the passage of the 11 security bills, use of force was only permitted in the event of a direct armed attack against Japan. The government now considers the following three conditions when reaching a decision: that the attack against Japan or another country threatens Japan's survival, that there are no other appropriate means available, and that the corresponding use of force is limited to the minimum extent necessary.
The second strategy is Abe government's domestic and foreign overall responses. Domestic strategy situates the economic revitalization as a concern. Japan provide "Abenomics" and "Trans-pacific Partnership" as its instruments to revitalize the economic development. The foreign strategy from Abe's administration is proactive contribution to peace based on the principle of international cooperation, which are: 1) expanding the scope of JSDF activities; 2) upgrading defense cooperation with the United States; 3) Strengthening the capacity of like-minded states; and 4) Reshaping JSDF to enhance its capability.
Japan also operated some diplomatic efforts to improve its relations with China and North Korea. Japan has organized Summit Meeting between PM Abe and President XI. Japan also held Japan-China-South Korea Trilateral Summit Meeting to seek progress on engaging multilateral diplomacy in the name of peace keeping in East Asia.
The Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement stated that in the present world, no nation can maintain its own peace and security alone. Japan, including its Self Defense Forces, has contributed to the maximum extent possible to the efforts to maintain and restore international peace and security, such as UN peacekeeping operations. Building on the ongoing efforts as a peaceful state, the Government of Japan has been making various efforts on its security policy which include: the establishment of the National Security Council (NSC), the adoption of the National Security Strategy (NSS), and the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG).
These efforts are made based on the belief that Japan, as a "Proactive Contributor to Peace", needs to contribute more actively to the peace and stability of the region and the international community, while coordinating with other countries including its ally, the United States. These contributions motivate Japan to upgrade its national capability to get more effectiveness and efficiency to contribute the world peace agenda.
Potential Threats to Indonesia
We understand that now Japan is trying to adapt to the rapid power shift resulted from China's increasing assertiveness and North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapon. Japan's security transformations are not only aimed to confront North Korea and/or China, but it has a bigger virtue, to proactively preserve peace and security in the Asia Pacific and beyond.
Japan's new security policy is also quite realistic for Japan considering its geopolitical conditions and situations regionally and globally. However, it might pose serious concern for East Asia war-peace stability. Nobody expect a Cold War Episode 2 in East Asia among Japan, China, and North Korea but security dilemma and balance of power, historically always existed from military power or self defense forces transformations.
Japan's new defense policy has significant transformation in its deployment. This directly has its own impact to East Asia Stability, which potentially would spread to South East Asia. In South East Asia, there are two focus point of Japan and some major power states. They are Malacca Straits and South China Sea.
The Malacca Straits are one of the world's most vulnerable areas regarding its high potential for conflicts. Every year, billions of Euro worth of goods and services pass through the region formed by the Straits of Malacca and other associated shipping routes. By using the Malacca Straits, the Japanese petroleum Industry saves millions of Euro annually.
The number of transnational organized crime in Malacca Straits has caused a big issue for the major power country such as US, UK, India, China (who also has problem in South China Sea), and certainly Japan who then want to interfere the authority on the Strait security management. This is a threat to Indonesia—not only territorial but also stability in South East Asia - if Indonesia cannot secure its own straits.We can't imagine what Malacca or South China Sea would become if each of those major power states establish their military bases there.
According to East Asia Forum articles, Japan's new development might potentially boost enthusiasm for the idea of Indo-Pacific security architecture that involves a 'stronger' Japan balancing China's power in the region and Indonesia is in the middle of rivalry.
ASEAN's position on Japan's security policy remains unclear. As the main regional institution, ASEAN has responsibility to formulate an effective mechanism to ease tensions and protect regional stability. The ASEAN Regional Forum is the only forum that can make China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea are willing to sit in the same table and discuss. Indonesia and ASEAN has gotten the "referee cards".
However, ASEAN itself has problems on the cohesion of its member nations, which has recently been weak, especially when dealing with the major powers related to Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam relations with China. Cohesiveness is ASEAN's primary means of retaining stability in the region. Without it, ASEAN will be easily divided by the big players, such as China, Japan, or the US.
Indonesia has a major role as "ASEAN Leader" to pursue an understanding with Laos—as the next ASEAN Summit host—to work together in the name of ASEAN as a community on maintaining South East Asia's stability post Japan's new defense policy and its relation to China. Indonesia's diplomacy success to balance Japan's military rising and China regional hegemonic vision toward Asia would possibly make Indonesia become the caretaker of South East Asia's stability.
In the situation that Japanese government has to work harder, not only to convince the public domestically, but also the regional community, that their new defense policy will have significant contribution in maintaining security and order, welcoming an open dialogue and cooperation with its neighbors is a must.
Indonesia through ASEAN must take this opportunity. This will help to convince that Japan's new defense policy can produce the best possible future for the region, and help overcome fears of the past. When Japan and U.S. are opened to discuss and cooperate, China—I am very sure—will modify its strategy and avoid the confrontation one.
Indonesia has good opportunity in diplomacy, but not for our defense systems. Good diplomacy has to be guaranteed by good defense and military system. We still have some problems and threats regarding the military transformation issues in East Asia. Indonesia on the other hand has some paradoxes in its military defense systems. According to Evan Laksmana on his article "Paradox upon Defense Industry", there are three paradoxical policies upon Indonesia's defense systems.
First, the paradox between primary consumer of Defense Industry's (in this case, TNI) requirement with Defense State-owned Enterprise's (BUMN-Pertahanan) objectives and expectations; second, paradox between BUMN empowerment strategy which drives on "techno-nationalism waves" and the uprising of regional "techno-globalists"; and third, paradox between Indonesia's military budget enhancement and the degradation of Indonesia's defense-BUMN. These three paradoxical conditions show that Indonesia is not well-prepared enough toward Japan's new defense policy.
Indonesia should intensify its relations with Japan, China, and U.S. by economic cooperation and partnerships. ASEAN Free Trade mechanisms (ACFTA, ASEAN+, etc) and other economic partnerships and integration models such as TPP and/or RCEP would stabilize Japan, China, and U.S. influences in South East Asia. In fact, it even could regulate how Japan, China, and U.S. act each other. Economic partnership would be an opportunity for Indonesia as it can be used to cover our lacks on military power.
*). Postgraduate Program of International Relations Department, University of Indonesia Forum for Academician of International Relations (FAIR), Universitas Riau.
COPYRIGHT © ANTARA News Megapolitan 2016
First challenge comes from North Korea's Military buildup and provocative actions. The 21st century is witnessing a rapid change in global power balance along with globalization. The security environment around Japan has become increasingly severe as represented by nuclear and missile development by North Korea. Transnational threats grounded on technological progress including international terrorism and cyber attacks are also increasing their significance.
North Korea military buildup is increasing from time to time. Regarding its ballistic missile launched on 7 February 2016 following its nuclear test on January 6, 2016, these two military actions have likely threatened East Asia stability. In fact, North Korea has continued the development of nuclear weapons and ballistic missile programs as well as its provocative behavior such as: 1) sinking of South Korean submarine; 2) shelling of a South Korean island; and 3) border incident followed by military mobilization.
Second challenge comes from China's advancement of its military capacity without transparency, and its further activities in the sea and air space. The serious concerns for China relates to some principle strategic issues such as: 1) China's advancement of its military capacity by its defense budget (China's budget counted about 216 billion, much higher compared to Japan which is 45.8 billion); 2) China's coercive behavior in Senkaku Island which caused East Asia tensions; and 3) China's unilateral revisionist actions related to Scarborough Shoal incident and South China sea artificial islands.
The third concerns are some major trends in East Asian geopolitical dynamics such as economic ties with China, increasing assertiveness of China and North Korea, increasing engagement of the United States in the security realm, and balancing by regional states. These issues become most concerned in Japan's self defense forces transformations.
East Asia needs a balancing pole to deter North Korea and China's actions. As the First strategy of Japan to transform its defense forces, Japan has reinterpreted its national regulations on military forces, dubbed the Japan's Security Bills.
Japan's controversial security bills have passed the Upper House of the Diet, ushering in a new era in Japanese security policy that allows the country to deploy its military overseas and play a much more prominent strategic role in peacekeeping and collective self-defense. Viewed from afar, the changes may seem realistic and promising. But for Japan, in line with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's goal of Japan's 'proactive contribution to peace', the move represents a significant shift in post-war defense policy away from the limited use of force and pacifist sentiment expressed in the Constitution to a more expansive interpretation.
According to Australian Strategic Policy Institute publications, the bills include a number of important policy changes. The most significant is undoubtedly the use of collective self-defense, which allows Japan to deploy its military to support US' armed forces and other countries in situations that have an 'important influence on Japan's peace and security'.
Up until the passage of the 11 security bills, use of force was only permitted in the event of a direct armed attack against Japan. The government now considers the following three conditions when reaching a decision: that the attack against Japan or another country threatens Japan's survival, that there are no other appropriate means available, and that the corresponding use of force is limited to the minimum extent necessary.
The second strategy is Abe government's domestic and foreign overall responses. Domestic strategy situates the economic revitalization as a concern. Japan provide "Abenomics" and "Trans-pacific Partnership" as its instruments to revitalize the economic development. The foreign strategy from Abe's administration is proactive contribution to peace based on the principle of international cooperation, which are: 1) expanding the scope of JSDF activities; 2) upgrading defense cooperation with the United States; 3) Strengthening the capacity of like-minded states; and 4) Reshaping JSDF to enhance its capability.
Japan also operated some diplomatic efforts to improve its relations with China and North Korea. Japan has organized Summit Meeting between PM Abe and President XI. Japan also held Japan-China-South Korea Trilateral Summit Meeting to seek progress on engaging multilateral diplomacy in the name of peace keeping in East Asia.
The Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs statement stated that in the present world, no nation can maintain its own peace and security alone. Japan, including its Self Defense Forces, has contributed to the maximum extent possible to the efforts to maintain and restore international peace and security, such as UN peacekeeping operations. Building on the ongoing efforts as a peaceful state, the Government of Japan has been making various efforts on its security policy which include: the establishment of the National Security Council (NSC), the adoption of the National Security Strategy (NSS), and the National Defense Program Guidelines (NDPG).
These efforts are made based on the belief that Japan, as a "Proactive Contributor to Peace", needs to contribute more actively to the peace and stability of the region and the international community, while coordinating with other countries including its ally, the United States. These contributions motivate Japan to upgrade its national capability to get more effectiveness and efficiency to contribute the world peace agenda.
Potential Threats to Indonesia
We understand that now Japan is trying to adapt to the rapid power shift resulted from China's increasing assertiveness and North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapon. Japan's security transformations are not only aimed to confront North Korea and/or China, but it has a bigger virtue, to proactively preserve peace and security in the Asia Pacific and beyond.
Japan's new security policy is also quite realistic for Japan considering its geopolitical conditions and situations regionally and globally. However, it might pose serious concern for East Asia war-peace stability. Nobody expect a Cold War Episode 2 in East Asia among Japan, China, and North Korea but security dilemma and balance of power, historically always existed from military power or self defense forces transformations.
Japan's new defense policy has significant transformation in its deployment. This directly has its own impact to East Asia Stability, which potentially would spread to South East Asia. In South East Asia, there are two focus point of Japan and some major power states. They are Malacca Straits and South China Sea.
The Malacca Straits are one of the world's most vulnerable areas regarding its high potential for conflicts. Every year, billions of Euro worth of goods and services pass through the region formed by the Straits of Malacca and other associated shipping routes. By using the Malacca Straits, the Japanese petroleum Industry saves millions of Euro annually.
The number of transnational organized crime in Malacca Straits has caused a big issue for the major power country such as US, UK, India, China (who also has problem in South China Sea), and certainly Japan who then want to interfere the authority on the Strait security management. This is a threat to Indonesia—not only territorial but also stability in South East Asia - if Indonesia cannot secure its own straits.We can't imagine what Malacca or South China Sea would become if each of those major power states establish their military bases there.
According to East Asia Forum articles, Japan's new development might potentially boost enthusiasm for the idea of Indo-Pacific security architecture that involves a 'stronger' Japan balancing China's power in the region and Indonesia is in the middle of rivalry.
ASEAN's position on Japan's security policy remains unclear. As the main regional institution, ASEAN has responsibility to formulate an effective mechanism to ease tensions and protect regional stability. The ASEAN Regional Forum is the only forum that can make China, Japan, South Korea and North Korea are willing to sit in the same table and discuss. Indonesia and ASEAN has gotten the "referee cards".
However, ASEAN itself has problems on the cohesion of its member nations, which has recently been weak, especially when dealing with the major powers related to Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam relations with China. Cohesiveness is ASEAN's primary means of retaining stability in the region. Without it, ASEAN will be easily divided by the big players, such as China, Japan, or the US.
Indonesia has a major role as "ASEAN Leader" to pursue an understanding with Laos—as the next ASEAN Summit host—to work together in the name of ASEAN as a community on maintaining South East Asia's stability post Japan's new defense policy and its relation to China. Indonesia's diplomacy success to balance Japan's military rising and China regional hegemonic vision toward Asia would possibly make Indonesia become the caretaker of South East Asia's stability.
In the situation that Japanese government has to work harder, not only to convince the public domestically, but also the regional community, that their new defense policy will have significant contribution in maintaining security and order, welcoming an open dialogue and cooperation with its neighbors is a must.
Indonesia through ASEAN must take this opportunity. This will help to convince that Japan's new defense policy can produce the best possible future for the region, and help overcome fears of the past. When Japan and U.S. are opened to discuss and cooperate, China—I am very sure—will modify its strategy and avoid the confrontation one.
Indonesia has good opportunity in diplomacy, but not for our defense systems. Good diplomacy has to be guaranteed by good defense and military system. We still have some problems and threats regarding the military transformation issues in East Asia. Indonesia on the other hand has some paradoxes in its military defense systems. According to Evan Laksmana on his article "Paradox upon Defense Industry", there are three paradoxical policies upon Indonesia's defense systems.
First, the paradox between primary consumer of Defense Industry's (in this case, TNI) requirement with Defense State-owned Enterprise's (BUMN-Pertahanan) objectives and expectations; second, paradox between BUMN empowerment strategy which drives on "techno-nationalism waves" and the uprising of regional "techno-globalists"; and third, paradox between Indonesia's military budget enhancement and the degradation of Indonesia's defense-BUMN. These three paradoxical conditions show that Indonesia is not well-prepared enough toward Japan's new defense policy.
Indonesia should intensify its relations with Japan, China, and U.S. by economic cooperation and partnerships. ASEAN Free Trade mechanisms (ACFTA, ASEAN+, etc) and other economic partnerships and integration models such as TPP and/or RCEP would stabilize Japan, China, and U.S. influences in South East Asia. In fact, it even could regulate how Japan, China, and U.S. act each other. Economic partnership would be an opportunity for Indonesia as it can be used to cover our lacks on military power.
*). Postgraduate Program of International Relations Department, University of Indonesia Forum for Academician of International Relations (FAIR), Universitas Riau.
Editor : M. Tohamaksun
COPYRIGHT © ANTARA News Megapolitan 2016